eMobility for business: Global trends in commercial electric vehicle sales and adoption

Significant progress has been made towards the eMobility transition within the EU transportation and logistics industry in the past year. Data from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shows a steady upward trend for zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales across the region.

"The transition to eMobility is integral to future growth in the logistics sector,” says Nick Antoniou, Global Commercial Lead, eMobility at DLL. “We're seeing increased interest from the market looking with regards to investing in electric commercial vehicle adoption, driven by both environmental concerns and long-term cost savings."

Increased efficiency of next generation e-trucks allows them to travel further on a single charge. This has removed one of the main barriers to entry into the market and provides one explanation for the positive uptake. Along with this, S&P Global Mobility predicts a 30 percent drop in US prices for Class 4-7 e-trucks (14,001 to 33,000 lbs) by 2030, driven by declining battery costs, manufacturing improvements, new technology, and economies of scale.

However, necessary charging infrastructure to support essential expansion of electric heavy-duty vehicles is not progressing fast enough in some markets and continues to fall short of developments in the electric car market.

Important EV trends in Europe

An ICCT market spotlight on the Race to Zero reveals buoyant demand for reduced emissions heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the three largest EU markets (Germany, France and Italy). Germany is particularly active, representing 40 percent of total HDV ZEV sales in the first quarter of 2024, despite a nine percent contraction in the market overall.

Sales of light and medium ZEVs also increased over the same period and made up more than eight percent of EU sales, compared to six percent at the end of 2023. Again, Germany led the charge, accounting for 68 percent of commercial ZEV sales in the second quarter. Conversely, the French market contracted from 38 percent to 11 percent, compared to 2023.

“These figures suggest a measured, but restrained approach to the eMobility transition,” comments Nick Antoniou. “With the right finance in place, combined with appropriate financial incentives, and attractive investment opportunities, more transportation and intralogistics operators may be persuaded to accelerate their plans.”

Do you want to read more about the US EV market? Dive deeper into our comprehensive blog post.

Expert Vision – eMobility trends and finance solutions

McKinsey & Company, management consultants

An analysis on European mobility finance, compiled by McKinsey & Company, suggests full-service leasing, new-car subscriptions, and financing for used cars are all promising businesses with the potential to become core mobility-finance segments by 2030.

The report predicts micromobility and charging infrastructure annual hypergrowth of more than 50 percent in some segments and increasing demand for new full-service and flexible offerings, such as X-as-a-service (XaaS) business models (where X stands for services such as vehicle or charging subscriptions), especially for electric commercial vehicles who may benefit from using an EV charging service provider, for example.

“Micromobility and electrification is on the rise in Europe, creating new opportunities for financial services that provide solutions to support access to mobility. Trends for used-car financing, micromobility, and EV charging infrastructure will create around 25 billion euros of new annual revenue for mobility-finance providers by 2030. Of this, electric passenger and light commercial vehicles will capture the lion’s share, accounting for more than 90 percent of total revenue.

Finance leasing could increase as a share of total mobility-finance revenue from 16 percent in 2023 to 20 percent by 2030. Moreover, demand among consumers and companies for more flexible ownership options could lead to above-average growth for full-service leasing that includes other services, such as insurance or subscriptions,” states the report.

Furthermore, providers need to offer affordable, convenient product solutions that are easy for customers to understand and administer. With this in mind, financial institutions will need to use advanced technologies, such as generative AI tools, to boost efficiency, control costs, and manage risk more accurately.

Overall, the report concludes: “Mobility markets offer new opportunities for financial-services providers to evolve and grow. The key is to move quickly.”

Factors affecting electric vehicle market growth

With e-trucks on the verge of significant growth, industry stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers and regional governments, need to ensure sufficient infrastructure to support the transport industry. While significant investment has gone into charging networks for cars, stakeholders need to identify and develop more sites along major routes to make sufficient provision for e-trucks. The ability to book and avoid queueing also needs to be considered, using integrated, digital platforms for site planning, real-time availability booking, and payment handling.

Joint ventures between vehicle manufacturers have helped establish charging hubs throughout Europe, including in the Netherlands and France, with numerous projects underway to grow the network into 2026. Moreover, Innovate UK has leveraged £200m of UK government funding to support electric heavy-duty vehicle market expansion, including the development of 32 new charging locations in the UK with 1MW capacity.

"While progress is being made, we're seeing that charging infrastructure remains a key concern for many of our customers," notes Nick Antoniou. "Collaborative efforts between finance providers, manufacturers, and government bodies will be crucial to address this challenge effectively."

Major obstacles to electrification include long approval procedures and limited availability of green energy, while progress in the UK is being thwarted by a backlog in connections to the power grid. Research from the Road Haulage Association (RHA) shows that 70 percent of British e-trucks return to depots for recharging overnight. Long-haul journeys are virtually impossible with current battery technology, meaning e-trucks are only suitable for local delivers within a 50-to-80-mile radius.

Why you should invest in lower-emission vehicles?

E-trucks represent 1.9 percent of the EU market, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), but will steadily increase as reduced emission deadlines approach.

Clean air, or low emission zones (LEZs), are becoming the norm in some UK cities in a bid to reduce air pollution. LGV or HGV drivers can be charged a daily rate of between £50 to £100 if they contravene the rules. LEZs have been established throughout the EU, including in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and northern Italy, to meet EU Air Quality Standards – and higher emission vehicles can be charged to enter.

Nick Antoniou explains: "Electrification, even on a small scale, and hydrogen fuel are realistic options to avoid costly penalties, while providing a long-term solution to circumvent the tightening rules on carbon emissions. We're seeing increasing interest from customers in financing these greener alternatives."

Energy transition requires significant, long-term investment and careful planning. EU government incentive policies, such as direct purchase subsidies and comprehensive tax benefits for purchases of reduced emission trucks, aim to boost EV sales in the region but vary from country to country and are often capped.

The European Investment Bank has financed projects to promote cleaner transport and crucial infrastructure and finances individual projects that target greener, safer transport.

Curious about how countries are supporting the shift to eMobility across the globe? Explore our comprehensive guide on subsidies and incentives for last-mile delivery.

Expert Vision – Sustainable US Fleets

‘Clean technology is here to stay,’ is the standout catchline of a report on sustainable fleets compiled by TRC Companies, a global environmental consulting and energy firm providing services to energy, environment, and infrastructure industries.

The report highlights unprecedented levels of public and private investment in battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US during the last five years. Transformative new regulations by the EPA and a large EV market in California have driven rapid adoption of cleaner alternatives to diesel engines, as well as record funding and investment in national public and depot charging networks.

Adoption of BEV buses, trucks and vans soared in 2023, almost doubling 2022 delivery volumes, while cargo vans and pick-up trucks accounted for 90 percent of new BEVs (23,700 units). Demand is growing outside California, the major ZEVs state hub. Texas and Florida were reported as the first and third largest markets for electric cargo trucks.

Many early adopters with large fleets, running shorter routes, are acquiring second or third purchase orders to expand ZEV fleets, and TRC indicates that 90 percent of fleets currently using BEVs expect their use to increase in the next two years. However, financial constraints have hindered growth for operators with small fleets and fleets serving long-haul routes.

Delays in the implementation of depot charging infrastructure was one of the main pain points identified in the report, and highlight the importance of collaboration between fleets, utilities, and charging partners to effectively scale BEVs.

eMobility finance solutions

Access to affordable finance to fund electrification is limited. Understanding the industry, the impact of regulations, and identifying where improvements could be made will help define the financial commitment over the short and the long-term.

"Working with a finance partner that has specialist industry knowledge and offers flexible, tailored solutions is essential,” advises Nick Antoniou.

DLL’s regional specialists can design bespoke leasing and commercial finance options for pay-as-sold, new, used, and refurbished electric vehicles to suit individual budgets, cash flow, and risk profiles.

DLL experts can facilitate a lower-emission future

DLL has a dedicated team of eMobility finance experts to support your energy transition goals, including sales, marketing, asset management, legal, risk, and sales support. Together with our partners, we can find the right financing solutions that reflect market dynamics.

"Collaboration is key to widespread transition," concludes Nick Antoniou. "A strong finance partner can ease the switch to electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. At DLL, we're committed to being that partner, helping our clients navigate the complexities of eMobility financing and contribute to a greener future."