Agriculture

June saw rather good weather globally, with winter harvests beginning well and spring crops showing healthy development with good weather forecast to continue in Europe and the US. Continuous improvement in energy prices also helped give the market reassurance over a demand recovery. However, a generalized second wave of Covid-19 seems to be building in a few places, forcing some regions to consider crawling back into lockdown. With increased understanding of the virus, developments in effective treatment, and new detection methods, we believe any second lockdown is likely to be lighter than the first, with a reduced impact on ag markets. Meanwhile, the chances of a La Niña event forming in 2021 are increasing, which could affect South American crops over the southern hemisphere summer and pose future weather risks.

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